5  Conclusion

This comprehensive analysis of crime trends in New York State has provided valuable insights into the patterns and dynamics of criminal activity over time, across various regions, and within different crime categories. Here are our key findings, limitations, potential future research areas, and important lessons learned from this study.

5.1 Main Takeaways:

Our longitudinal study, covering the period from 1990 to 2020, reveals a notable decrease in overall crime rates across New York State, followed by a surprising increase after 2020. This recent uptick is thought to be connected to the socio-economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The following examination of crime trends post-2020 reveals a complex relationship between the pandemic and crime rates. Densely populated and urban areas, especially in and around New York City, experienced a more pronounced increase in crime rates, suggesting varying impacts across different regions.

Our analysis also uncovers interesting patterns of crime types and geographic correlations. Biplots used in the study point to specific associations between certain crimes and counties, laying the groundwork for more detailed socioeconomic and demographic studies.

Finally, the analysis of the impact of “Operation Impact” and stop-and-frisk policies from the perspective of our primary dataset offers an inconclusive result. While a general decline in crime rates is observed during the stop-and-frisk era, attributing this solely to the policy proves challenging. The post-stop-and-frisk period shows an uptick in crime rates, raising questions about the long-term efficacy of the policy.

5.2 Limitations :

Throughout our analysis, we highlight concerns such as data inconsistencies, reporting biases, and missing information. These factors may impact the robustness of conclusions drawn from the analysis.

Furthermore, we are careful to distinguish correlation and causation. Thus, inferring causation from observed trends requires careful consideration of various influencing factors. External events, legislative changes, and socioeconomic shifts may contribute to observed patterns.

5.3 Future Directions:

Further research into the socioeconomic and demographic factors of counties could provide deeper insights into crime dynamics. Understanding local variations and disparities will certainly enhance the effectiveness of policy interventions

It would be interesting to further study the impact of specific policies, such as “Operation Impact”, on crime rates using additional, complementary datasets. Evaluating the efficacy of law enforcement strategies across datasets is a crucial ingredient in evidence-based policy-making, and a careful study of various influencing aspects requires not only access to data but also detailed domain knowledge.

Finally, integrating our spatial and temporal analysis with demographic data could also improve our study. A detailed examination of crime rates correlated with population density, socioeconomic indicators, and police policies over time would help provide a more comprehensive understanding of the details of the post-2020 crime spike, and how to prevent it in the case of a potential similar event in the future.

5.4 Lessons Learned:

The study of crime trends is inherently complex and influenced by many factors. A comprehensive analysis that considers more detailed temporal, geographic, socioeconomic and crime-specific dimensions is extremely complicated and requires not only access to diverse datasets but also in-depth domain knowledge about the region, crime-patterns and policing initiatives. Additionally, factors such as external events, policy changes, and demographic shifts significantly influence crime trends and must be carefully considered when interpreting data.

In conclusion, our exploration serves as a foundational step toward understanding the complexities of crime trends in New York State. The use of analytics, demographic insights, and a continuous evaluation of policy impacts would contribute to a much deeper understanding of the dynamic nature of crime. Nonetheless, we believe, we were able to implement various techniques learned in class, which helped us provide a relatively comprehensive analysis and overview over the crime trends in New York State since 1990.